社会科学中的数学和其他论文：英文 下PDF|Epub|txt|kindle电子书版本网盘下载

社会科学中的数学和其他论文：英文 下PDF格式电子书版下载

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Ⅰ MATHEMATICS IN THE SOCIAL SCIENCES1

1.INTRODUCTION1

2.STRUCTURE AND CHANGE3

a.Births and survivals3

b.Marriage and descent6

c.Class structure and social mobility7

d.Group interaction8

e.Social accounting9

f.The national accounts and a model of pro-duction growth10

g.Industrial inputs and outputs12

h.Education and training13

i.Teachers and graduates14

3.DECISIONS16

a.Single-stage decisions under certainty17

b.Multi-stage decisions under certainty21

c.Decisions under uncertainty23

4.SYSTEMS ANALYSIS28

Ⅱ THE A PRIORI AND THE EMPIRICAL IN ECONOMICS36

1.INTRODUCTION36

2.THE A PRIORI AND THE EMPIRICAL37

3.DEMAND THEORY AND CONSUMERS BEHAVIOUR40

4.IDENTIFICATION AND SIMULTANEOUS RELATIONSHIPS50

5.INFINITE HORIZONS AND THE PROBLEM OF PLANNING57

6.CONCLUSION62

Ⅲ THE HOUSEKEEPER AND THE STEERSMAN63

1.SUBCONSCIOUS CYBERNETICS63

a.Equilibrium in isolated markets67

2.CONSCIOUS CYBERNETICS67

b.Macro-dynamic models69

c.Economic control71

3.CYBERNETICS IN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND POLICY73

a.Economic planning74

b.Shadow prices75

c.Computers76

d.The human element76

4.CONCLUSION77

Ⅳ MISERY AND BLISS79

1.INTRODUCTION79

2.POSITIVE THEORY84

b.The production function85

a.The accounting identities85

c.The maintenance of assets per head with steady growth of population87

d.The saving function88

e.The influence of the standard of living on population growth89

f.A summary and interpretation of the positive theory89

3.NORMATIVE THEORY92

4.POLICY PRESCRIPTION96

a.Ramsey s saving principle97

b.A saving principle for a growing economy101

c.Foreign aid and domestic saving103

5.CONCLUSIONS104

Ⅴ THREE MODELS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH106

1.INTRODUCTION106

2.THE MULTIPLIER-ACCELERATOR MODEL108

3.A TWO-SECTOR MODEL FOR INVESTMENT PLANNING110

4.AN OPTIMIZING ALLOCATION MODEL112

5.SOME COMMENTS ON THE OPTIMIZING MODEL121

6.CONCLUSIONS124

Ⅵ MODELS OF THE NATIONAL ECONOMY FOR PLANNING PURPOSES127

1.INTRODUCTION127

2.A SLICE OF LIFE128

3.OPERATIONAL RESEARCH AND MODELS OF THE NATIONAL ECONOMY137

a.Taxonomy138

b.Basic data138

c.Relationships139

d.Reviewing results140

e.Linking models141

4.CONCLUSIONS142

1.INTRODUCTION144

Ⅶ A DEMONSTRATION MODEL OF ECO-NOMIC GROWTH144

2.THE CONSUMPTION FUNCTIONS145

3.CURRENT OUTPUT REQUIREMENTS FOR GROWTH IN CONSUMPTION149

4.THE PRODUCTION FUNCTIONS151

5.THE DETERMINATION OF PRICES153

6.THE SOLUTION OF THE MODEL153

7.THE DETERMINATION OF PARAMETERS AND INITIAL VALUES154

8.SOME REALISTIC COMPLICATIONS157

9.THE MODEL AND ITS PURPOSE159

Ⅷ TRANSITIONAL PLANNING163

1.INTRODUCTION163

2.ASSUMPTIONS166

3.CONSTRAINTS169

4.A MAXIMAND171

5.A LINEAR PROGRAMME172

6.SOME RELAXATIONS174

a.The parameters，b and c，of the consum-ption functions174

b.The replacement of capital goods175

c.The matrix，A，of current input-output coefficients175

d.The matrix，K，of capital input-output coefficients178

e.Differences in investment lags179

f.Changes in the productivity of labour，f183

g.Foreign trade184

h.Future shadow prices186

7.CONCLUSION190

Ⅸ A MODEL OF THE EDUCATIONAL SYSTEM192

1.INTRODUCTION192

2.THE STRUCTURE OF EDUCATIONAL PROCESSES196

3.BIRTHS AND SURVIVALS203

4.THE DEMAND FOR PLACES206

5.THE INFLUENCE OF ECONOMIC PROSPECTS210

6.ECONOMIC INPUTS INTO EDUCATION213

7.TECHNOLOGIAL CHANGE IN EDUCATION215

8.THE SUPPLY OF ECONOMIC INPUTS215

9.THE NEXT STEPS217

Ⅹ SOCIAL ACCOUNTS AT THE REGIONAL LEVEL:A SURVEY219

1.INTRODUCTION219

2.SINGLE INDICATORS FOR EACH REGION223

3.REGIONAL ACCOUNTS227

4.DIRECT AND INDIRECT ESTIMATION AND THE ADJUSTMENT OF OBSERVATIONS236

5.FURTHER USES FOR THE ALL REGIONS ACCOUNTS240

6.A NUMERICAL EXAMPLE OF REGIONAL ACCOUNTING242

7.PRICE AND QUANTITY COMPARISONS BETWEEN REGIONS252

8.STRUCTURAL ANALYSIS OF REGIONS255

9.PARTIAL ANALYSIS WITH REGIONAL DATA259

10.NATIONAL ACCOUNTING MODELS WITH REGIONAL DATA261

11.EXTENDED ACCOUNTING MODELS:REGIONAL INPUT-OUTPUT263

12.A CENTRALLY CONNECTED REGIONAL MODEL265

13.VARIABLE COST STRUCTURES AND BILATERALLY FIXED TRADING PATTERNS266

14.LOCAL AND REGIONAL INPUT-OUTPUT STUDIES269

15.FURTHER DEVELOPMENTS AND CONCLUSIONS273

APPENDIX:BRIEF NOTES ON THE CONSTRUCTION OF TABLE 10277

Ⅺ A COMPARISON OF THE ECONOMIC STRUCTURE OF REGIONS BASED ON THE CONCEPT OF‘DISTANCE’282

1.INTRODUCTION282

2.THE PROBLEM283

3.THE DATA285

4.THE METHOD285

5.DISTANCE AND FACTORS290

6.APPLICATIONS293

7.CONCLUSIONS310

Ⅻ POPULATION MATHEMATICS，DEMAND ANALYSIS AND INVESTMENT PLANNING313

1.INTRODUCTION313

2.THE SIMPLEST CASE:FUTURE DEMAND CONSTANT314

3.THE SECOND CASE:EXPONENTIAL GROWTH OF FUTURE DEMAND317

4.THE THIRD CASE:SATURATION IN THE GROWTH OF FUTURE DEMAND319

5.A SUMMARY OF THE TRANSITION MATRICES321

6.TRANSITION MATRICES AND DEMAND ANALYSIS322

7.A RELAXATION OF THE ASSUMPTIONS324

1.INTRODUCTION326

ⅩⅢ A DYNAMIC MODEL OF DEMAND326

2.A DYNAMIC MODEL OF THE DEMAND FOR A DURABLE GOOD328

3.GENERALIZATIONS333

a.The case of perishable goods333

b.Time lags in the determining variables333

c.A variable rate of adjustment334

d.Allowance for scrapping335

e.A system of demand relationships337

f.The aggregate consumption function337

g.A generalization of the input-output model of Leontief338

4.CALCULATIONS338

a.The calculation of stocks from past purchases338

b.The relationship of m to n339

e.The combination of data with different time units340

c.The time taken for a good to depreciate through use to 10 per cent of its original amount340

d.Internal estimates of 1/n340

5.APPLICATIONS341

a.Analyses for individual groups of durable goods341

b.Comparison of pre-war and post-war de-mand structures343

c.Dynamic systems of demand relationships343

6.SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS344

ⅩⅣ THE CHANGING PATTERN OF CONSUMP-TION346

1.INTRODUCTION346

2.THE ECONOMICS OF THE SYSTEM347

3.THE STATISTICS OF THE SYSTEM352

a.The computing sequence352

b.The analysis of subgroups354

c.Cross-section data and time series356

4.SOME RESULTS OF THE MODEL358

5.CONCLUSIONS367

ⅩⅤ PRIVATE SAVING IN BRITAIN，PAST，PRESENT AND FUTURE369

1.INTRODUCTION369

2.A MODEL OF SAVING370

3.ANNUAL MODELS OF PERSONAL SAVING373

4.A QUARTERLY MODEL OF PERSONAL GROSS SAVING379

5.SHORT-TERM FORECASTS OF PERSONAL GROSS SAVING382

a.The 1962 prediction382

b.A prediction for 1964383

6.ANNUAL MODELS OF COMPANY SAVING384

a.All companies385

b.Quoted companies in manufacturing and distribution386

7.RATIONS AND STEADY GROWTH388

8.CONCLUSIONS394

APPENDIX Ⅰ:THE MATHEMATICAL MODEL396

a.The basic model397

b.Non-homogeneity399

c.Exogenous influences399

d.The subdivision of income400

e.Time units401

f.Statistical methods402

g.Steady-state ratios402

APPENDIX Ⅱ:THE STATISTICAL DATA AND RESULTS404

ⅩⅥ MULTIPLE CLASSIFICATIONS IN SOCIAL ACCOUNTING411

1.INTRODUCTION411

2.CRITERIA OF CLASSIFICATION FOR A PROPER SOLUTION413

3.A SIMPLE EXAMPLE:INDUSTRIES AND COMMODITIES418

4.A SECOND EXAMPLE:A CLASSIFICATION CONVERTER FOR FINANCIAL FLOWS421

5.REAL-FINANCIAL CONVERTERS423

6.A NUMERICAL EXAMPLE:THE ACCOUNTING FRAME-WORK OF THE CAMBRIDGE GROWTH MODEL423

7.CONCLUSIONS428

APPENDIX:FURTHER DETAILS OF THE ACCOUNTING FRAMEWORK OF THE CAMBRIDGE GROWTH MODEL431

1.A LIST OF ACCOUNTS431

2.THE ENTRIES IN THE ACCOUNTS435

3.A PROVISIONAL TABLE FOR 1959447

ⅩⅦ BRITISH ECONOMIC BALANCES IN 1970:A TRIAL RUN ON ROCKET448

1.INTRODUCTION448

2.THE FRAMEWORK OF THE MODEL451

a.Private consumption459

3.EXOGENOUS FINAL DEMANDS463

b.Government consumption472

c.Industrial replacements473

d.Consumers durables and dwellings474

e.Social capital475

f.Exports475

g.Total exogenous final demand and its rate of change475

4.ENDOGENOUS DEMANDS AND COMMODITY BALANCES477

5.INDUSTRY BALANCES482

6.BALANCES FOR INDUSTRIAL FIXED ASSETS489

7.FOREIGN TRADE BALANCES495

8.FINANCIAL BALANCES502

9.THE END OF THE BEGINNING507

10.THE NEXT STAGE508

11.CONCLUSION511

A LIST OF WORKS CITED512